2026 NBA playoffs: Biggest questions, projections, what to watch
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NBA Insiders
Mar 18, 2026, 11:00 AMShareLikeOpen Extended Reactions620
The NBA is less than a month away from turning the page on the 2025-26 regular season to the playoffs. Competition across the league is intensifying as Eastern and Western conference teams are working to secure their spots in the postseason — or turning their attention to the offseason.
Some teams are fine-tuning and evaluating their play as the postseason landscape remains in flux. Others are grappling with how different their squads could look next season. Regardless of the standings, the last month of the regular season is hectic for all 30 teams, especially those positioning for seeding in the playoffs — or play-in tournament.
Our ESPN insiders answer the biggest questions facing the East and West title contenders and discuss what each is focusing on in their remaining regular-season games.
What’s been the source of theDetroit Pistons‘ late-season struggles and how can they adjust in the postseason?
The Pistons’ defense has taken a dip since the All-Star break, and it’s contributed to losses that have brought about doubts. In their 40-13 start, their defense was second in the league at 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Since going 9-6 after the break, Detroit’s defense is still top 10, but at 112.1 points per 100 possessions. Their superpower is making sure teams can’t play their best.
Their shot creation will come up in the postseason, and there’s only so much they can do around Cade Cunningham in the meantime. But they can control defensive intensity, and rediscovering that will go a long way toward success this season. — Vincent Goodwill
In a similar fashion to how they have the first week: gradually ramping up his minutes to prepare him for what Boston hopes is a deep playoff run. In his first three games, Tatum played 27 minutes before increasing to 32 minutes in his fourth and fifth games. The Celtics have another month to build him up to a playoff workload and expect them to take full advantage of that. — Tim Bontemps
The numbers say New York is a game better than last year’s pace, but it doesn’t feel like it. The Knicks have improved with a top-five offense and a top-10 defense, both better than last season. That’s largely attributed to the narrative around Thibs teams being historically great defensively, the Knicks’ up-and-down nature this season and the enormous, often suffocating expectations. The starters’ minutes are down as Mike Brown has a deeper rotation.
The vibes don’t feel great right now — but the vibes weren’t great last year, either. The true test will come in May and possibly June. The passage of time seems to color last year in ways that aren’t necessarily true. There’s an opportunity in front of the Knicks, and it’s time they recognize that. — Goodwill
How has James Harden given the Cleveland Cavaliers the confidence that he can help push the team past the Pistons, Celtics and Knicks?
The Cavs have gone 12-6 since making the trade for Harden, including going 11-4 in games with him in the lineup, and are looking much more like the team that began the season as one of the favorites in the conference. Cleveland has the second-best offensive rating in the NBA since the deadline as Harden’s passing has elevated the team on that side of the ball: He’s relieved an overtaxed Donovan Mitchell, unlocked Jarrett Allen in the pick-and-roll and delivered easy passes and wide-open looks for the shooters around him.
Most importantly for the Cavs, Harden has been available, a key reason why they wanted an upgrade for Darius Garland and why coach Kenny Atkinson told ESPN Harden’s arrival has given his team a “renewed confidence.” — Jamal Collier
How will the next month impact Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s and Doc Rivers’ futures in Milwaukee?
Not much. Time has been the Bucks’ fallback plan throughout their yearlong stare-down with Antetokounmpo. The team has insisted throughout its disappointing campaign that there was still enough time either for an in-season turnaround, to rebuild as a contender or to convince Antetokounmpo to sign another extension to remain in Milwaukee.
Yet, the reality of the standings (trailing the No. 10 seed by 5ยฝ games) and the chasm between Milwaukee and true contenders is evident. No matter how the final month of the season ends, the Bucks will have to face that reality this summer. — Collier
Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, through every March 16 game.
What’s the one East game you have circled on your calendar?
I’m going to cheat and pick two because the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat meet on April 7 and April 9 in Toronto. As of Tuesday afternoon, Toronto leads Miami by a half-game, so the outcome of that two-game series could determine which team receives an automatic playoff berth and which team must navigate a tricky play-in field. — Zach Kram
How concerning is the Oklahoma City Thunder‘s injury issues one month from the playoffs?
Jalen Williams‘ hamstring is the Thunder’s one significant injury concern at this point. Oklahoma City will have to proceed with caution after he aggravated the strain in his second game after returning just before the All-Star break. The hope is that Williams, who missed the first 19 games while recovering from offseason wrist surgery and has been sidelined almost all of the past two months, will be able to play his way into a rhythm by the time the playoffs begin.
The Thunder can afford to be patient as they are 36-8 without Williams in the lineup this season and have an three-game cushion over the Spurs at the top of the West standings. But Oklahoma City knows how critical Williams is to its hopes of defending a title. His 40-point outing in Game 5 of last season’s NBA Finals might have been the most important individual performance in franchise history. — Tim MacMahon
Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs haven’t yet made the playoffs. How high is their confidence level heading into the regular season’s final stretch?
It’s soaring, especially after San Antonio racked up a 5-1 record in a six-game homestand that featured impressive victories over expected postseason participants Detroit, the LA Clippers, Rockets, Celtics and Hornets. The Spurs entered the homestand welcoming the diversity of playing styles, personnel and potential on-court situations they would encounter as they looked to sharpen up for the stretch run and their first playoff berth since 2019.
Wembanyama missed one game during the homestand due to an ankle injury, but he returned to produce his fifth straight game with 25 points on 50% shooting or better from the field to tie LaMarcus Aldridge (2018) for the third-longest streak of such games by a Spur in the past 25 seasons. –– Michael C. Wright
After back-to-back trips to the West finals, what can the Minnesota Timberwolves do in the next month to show that the team is ready for another deep playoff run?
It would be ideal if the Timberwolves could establish some consistency. Minnesota’s roller-coaster act can be maddening, but the past couple of seasons featured plenty of ups and downs and ended with conference finals runs. The Wolves have slipped significantly on the defensive end this season, ranking ninth in efficiency, down from sixth last season and first in 2023-24.
They’ve been especially bad since the All-Star break, allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 21st during that span. That is a trend that must end for Minnesota to make another run. Wolves phenom Anthony Edwards is also dealing with right knee soreness, and he will be reevaluated in one to two weeks. –– MacMahon
Can the Houston Rockets play in the Western Conference playoffs without a true point guard?
Absolutely. But it’s unlikely they’ll play long if they can’t shore up some of the other issues — such as turnovers and closing games — that have affected this team all season. Without a true point guard, Houston believes it can scheme around deficiencies at the position, according to an assistant, who said the Rockets could draw up plays that make Amen Thompson more effective offensively, while manipulating schemes to protect defensive liability Reed Sheppard on the other end.
Houston also needs center Alperen Sengun to shake off his recent defensive struggles, while sharpening his acumen as a hub on offense. –– Wright
Whether his answer was fueled by experience, patience, or just blind faith, Lakers coach JJ Redick presented a clear vision when asked about his team’s chances in the final stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs.
“I’m confident we’re going to find it,” Redick said last week. “How we’re going to find it, that’s where it’s … you got to figure it out on a daily basis sometimes.”
While their big three’s net rating is a positive (plus-3.2 in 20 games played with one another), their individual pairings are not all alike. James and Doncic have a net rating of minus-2.1, James and Reaves are plus-1.2 — Reaves and Doncic are plus-8.0. Redick has attempted to smooth the fit two ways: by staggering the minutes they play together, allowing James to play more on ball with the second unit, and by asking James to embrace being more complementary than featured when on the floor with those two.
“I know he wants to win, and he wants to do everything possible to help this team win,” Redick said of James. — Dave McMenamin
Into any level of fringe contention? Nope. Jimmy Butler III‘s ACL tear unofficially ended those dreams. But there’s still a competitive team within the leftover roster, as long as Kristaps Porzingis is available and Curry is back and revved up for the play-in bracket. It’s becoming increasingly clear the Warriors will have to play out of the nine against 10 slot.
That means they will need to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in an elimination game and then beat the loser of a matchup that would currently be between the Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers. If they pull that off — needing Curry — they will be rewarded with the West’s top seed, likely the Oklahoma City Thunder, in the first round. The path back to relevancy this season is daunting. — Anthony Slater
Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, through every March 16 game.
What’s the one West game you have circled on your calendar?
The Denver Nuggets should remain a top-six team in the West, thanks to a fairly easy schedule down the stretch. (Two of the Nuggets’ hardest remaining games are against the Thunder and Spurs to close the regular season, but those teams could be locked into their seeds and resting for the playoffs at that point.)
But if the Nuggets lose to the Suns on March 24, things could get interesting. Denver would surely prefer to avoid the play-in tournament and a potential first-round matchup with either San Antonio or Oklahoma City. — Kram
With a few weeks to go in the regular season, it’s a three-player race for the league’s highest individual honor. Last year’s winner, Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is the favorite to win it again, with three-time winner Nikola Jokic and young phenom Victor Wembanyama hot on his heels. This could come down to how the West plays out.
If OKC stays on top, SGA should win again. But if the Thunder get passed by the Spurs? Well, Wemby’s dreams of an MVP and DPOY in the same season — something only Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon and Giannis Antetokounmpo have ever done — will be well within reach. — Bontemps
Which standings race is the most important to watch for the lottery?
Obviously, whichever team is your favorite. But objectively, the Pacers are the team on the narrowest margins. Indiana currently sits dead last in the standings and has only top-four protection on its pick after dealing for Ivica Zubac. Indiana must stay in the bottom three and preserve the full 52.1% chance of keeping its pick — essentially the better side of what’s still a coin flip.
If the Pacers are lucky and keep it, they’ll be able to add a healthy Tyrese Haliburton and a second young star into the fold with Zubac on what should be a playoff-level team next season. If they don’t, the Clippers instead walk away with a legit building block in the five to nine range, putting the fate of two teams squarely in the balance. — Jeremy Woo
Who is a playoff sleeper to watch?
The top five teams by defensive rating include the top two seeds in each conference (Oklahoma City, Detroit, San Antonio and Boston), as well as the Heat, who are much farther back in the standings. But the Heat have made Finals runs from a low seed before. Their recent surge makes them a compelling candidate, especially if Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware give them a big man duo to match all the double-big lineups in the East.
As of Tuesday afternoon, lineups with Adebayo and Ware playing together have a plus-22.2 net rating in their past 10 games. — Kram
Mar 18, 2026, 12:45 PMShareLikeOpen Extended Reactions1.6K
There’s less than a month left in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, and teams are already claiming spots in the postseason as well as bowing their way out of any chance of extending their season into June.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are the only two teams to at least clinch a spot in the postseason, as both are having dominant runs through a competitive Western Conference. And while those Finals contenders largely secured their spots behind the play of superstars — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama are both vying for MVP this season — winning in the NBA often comes down to players on the margins.
In addition to the updated 1-30 rankings, our NBA insiders are spotlighting one unheralded player on every team — from young difference-makers on playoff contenders to veterans providing a late-season spark on teams headed for the lottery.
Note: Team rankings are based on where members of our panel (ESPN’s Anthony Slater, Dave McMenamin, Jamal Collier, Michael C. Wright, Bobby Marks, Tim Bontemps, Tim MacMahon, Vincent Goodwill and Zach Kram) think teams belong.
Next games: @ BKN (Mar. 18), @ WAS (Mar. 21), @ PHI (Mar. 23)
Bigger names were traded at the deadline, but Sam Presti acquiring Jared McCain from Philadelphia for Houston’s 2026 first-rounder (plus three second-rounders) might be as impactful as any move in the current title chase. While other contenders didn’t do much, the Thunder injected a second-year guard with a growing track record as a microwave scorer into their bench. It remains to be seen how McCain will fit into a full playoff rotation in OKC, but he’s made 43.8% of his 3s and averaged 11.4 bench points in his 17 games since crossing conferences, aiding the injury-riddled Thunder in a recent nine-game winning streak. — Anthony Slater
Next games: vs. PHX (Mar. 19), vs. IND (Mar. 21), @ MIA (Mar. 23)
Rookie guard Dylan Harper has been instrumental in the Spurs achieving their first 50-win season since 2016-17, which snapped a drought of eight consecutive seasons. Before that, San Antonio earned at least 50 victories every season from 1999-2000 and 2016-17. The second pick of the 2025 NBA draft, Harper plays the role of sixth man in arguably the most formidable backcourt unit in the league. Harper has been out the past two games with a bruised right calf. But he contributed heavily to the Spurs winning 18 of their past 20 entering Tuesday night. — Michael C. Wright
Next games: @ WAS (Mar. 19), vs. GSW (Mar. 20), vs. LAL (Mar. 23)
Isaiah Stewart’s value cannot be overstated, and when he’s not on the floor, it’s felt. The Pistons survived his seven-game suspension, but now a bothersome left calf has been deemed a strain, and he’ll be out at least a week. As the league’s best rim protector, the Pistons want to be very careful with him heading to the playoffs. Last postseason, he was limited to just 19 minutes in a critical Game 1 against the Knicks. — Vincent Goodwill
Next games: vs. GSW (Mar. 18), @ MEM (Mar. 20), vs. MIN (Mar. 22)
After hardly playing last year after being taken late in the first round, the 25-year-old Baylor Scheierman has become a consistent rotation player under coach Joe Mazzulla this season, shooting 38% from 3-point range and providing consistent energy off the bench on the wings. — Tim Bontemps
Next games: @ BKN (Mar. 20), vs. WAS (Mar. 22), vs. NO (Mar. 24)
It’s hard to argue with the long-term strategy to get Mitchell Robinson to the floor and keep him there. The Knicks spent the first few months of the season managing his minutes, keeping him out of back-to-backs and generally out of harm’s way. The Knicks are hoping he will be able to play heavy minutes in the postseason, and it’s easy to see why he’s become an integral part of their offense. Robinson’s offensive rebounding (4.4) often leads to 3-pointers and similarly keeps him off the foul line. Last Friday against the Pacers, in a season-high 31 minutes, he grabbed nine of his season-high 22 rebounds on the offensive end. — Goodwill
Next games: @ HOU (Mar. 18), @ MIA (Mar. 19), @ ORL (Mar. 21), @ DET (Mar. 23)
As the lone Laker to play in every game this season, Jake LaRavia has been a mighty important piece for coach JJ Redick. While his recent struggles from deep have gotten their share of attention (he’s 1-for-14 from 3 in March), he remains one of L.A.’s most versatile defenders and can do a bit of everything on the court, averaging 8.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 steals per game. — Dave McMenamin
Next games: @ CHI (Mar. 19), @ NO (Mar. 21), vs. ORL (Mar. 24)
Second-year guard Jaylon Tyson has emerged as a huge contributor for the Cavs, filling in as a starter during the first half of the season as the team dealt with injuries and finding his rotation spot as a reserve after the team’s trade deadline acquisitions. He ranks third in the NBA in 3-point percentage (45.7% on 4.5 attempts per game), which makes him a strong connector alongside Donovan Mitchell and James Harden — Tyson has found some success as a screener in pick-and-rolls next to the Cavs stars. — Jamal Collier
Next games: @ MEM (Mar. 18), vs. TOR (Mar. 20), vs. POR (Mar. 22), @ PHX (Mar. 24)
Tim Hardaway Jr. has been one of the best values in the league on a veterans minimum deal. The 34-year-old guard has provided the Nuggets a much-needed dose of offense off the bench, averaging 13.9 points in 27.2 minutes per game entering Tuesday night. He is tied for 13th in the league with 188 made 3-pointers and is shooting 41.0% from long range. — Tim MacMahon
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Next games: vs. LAL (Mar. 18), vs. ATL (Mar. 20), vs. MIA (Mar. 21), @ CHI (Mar. 23)
Reed Sheppard has logged just 10 starts this season, but Houston’s struggling offense needs to figure out how to best use the boost the sharpshooting sixth man can provide from deep and minimize his defensive shortcomings. Kevin Durant took responsibility Monday for another late-game collapse against the Lakers, saying, “I’m the offense. And the opposing team is going to use all [its] resources to not let me get comfortable.” Houston scored 35 points and finished with more turnovers (17) than field goals (14) in the second half. The problem is that when teams double Durant, the Rockets struggle to exploit the matchup advantages behind it. — Wright
Next games: vs. UTAH (Mar. 18), vs. POR (Mar. 20), @ BOS (Mar. 22)
The 25-year-old guard Bones Hyland has revived his career in Minnesota playing for Wolves president Tim Connelly, who drafted him in the first round in Denver. Hyland, who is shooting 38.5% from 3-point range and providing an offensive boost off the bench, will be needed in the coming games with Anthony Edwards sidelined with right knee inflammation. — Bontemps
Next games: @ CHA (Mar. 19), vs. LAL (Mar. 21), vs. IND (Mar. 23), @ CLE (Mar. 24)
Give Orlando’s front office credit for its recent draft history. Not only did it select Anthony Black outside of the top five, but it also selected forward Tristan da Silva. Since the All-Star break, da Silva has started 12 of 15 games, averaging 12.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG and shooting 50% from the field. For the season, the lineup of Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, da Silva, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter is a plus-15.9 points per 100 possessions. — Bobby Marks
Next games: @ SA (Mar. 19), vs. MIL (Mar. 21), vs. TOR (Mar. 22), vs. DEN (Mar. 24)
Jordan Goodwin signed a two-way contract with the Lakers last February, had it converted to a standard contract in March, was waived in July and was quickly scooped up by Phoenix, where he has become a vital role player on both ends of the court. The sturdy 6-foot-3 combo guard is averaging 8.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.4 steals off the bench for a surprise Suns team that entered Tuesday 10 games over .500. — McMenamin
Next games: vs. LAL (Mar. 19), @ HOU (Mar. 21), vs. SA (Mar. 23)
For a Heat team featuring Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Norman Powell, the name Pelle Larsson typically would not stand out. But the second-round pick in 2024 scored a career-high 28 points last week in a win against Milwaukee, and in 45 starts this season, Larsson is averaging 12.6 points per game and is shooting 51.3% from the field. The Heat are plus-4.9 points per 100 possessions and boast a 111.8 defensive rating with Larsson on the court. And no one on the Heat roster has taken more charges this season. — Marks
Next games: @ DAL, (Mar. 18), @ HOU (Mar. 20), vs. GSW (Mar. 21), vs. MEM (Mar. 23)
The win Monday against Orlando capped off a 5-0 homestand and a 10-game winning streak for the Hawks, their longest since 2014-15. During that span, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has made a strong case for “most improved” honors, shooting 53% from the field and 45.9% from 3. Against the Magic, he scored a career-high 41 points and shot 9-for-15 from 3. In his first season with the Hawks after being a reserve last season for the Timberwolves, Alexander-Walker’s scoring has increased from 9.4 PPG to 20.3. — Marks
Next games: @ CHI (Mar. 18), @ DEN (Mar. 20), @ PHX (Mar. 22), @ UTAH (Mar. 23)
In his first season in Toronto, Sandro Mamukelashvili has quietly been one of the NBA’s most productive backup bigs. Averaging 10.8 PPG on 63% true shooting, the 6-9 Mamukelashvili has played in 65 of 67 games for a team in desperate need of size. With the more heralded Jakob Poeltl and Collin Murray-Boyles both missing long stretches due to injury, Mamukelashvili’s availability has been a boon to Toronto. — Zach Kram
Stephen A.: The Knicks need to stand up, period
Stephen A. Smith sends his message to the Knicks after their loss to the Lakers.
Next games: @ NO (Mar. 18), @ NO (Mar. 19), @ DAL (Mar. 21), vs. MIL (Mar. 23)
Bennedict Mathurin arrived in L.A. at the trade deadline from Indiana and provided instant offense off the bench, averaging career highs with 19.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.1 steals. Most impressively, the Clippers have gone 9-7 in the games he’s played, staying firmly in the play-in picture in an increasingly difficult Western Conference. — McMenamin
Next games: vs. ORL (Mar. 19), vs. MEM (Mar. 21), vs. SAC (Mar. 4)
Grant Williams not only brings a rare veteran presence to an extremely young roster, but the 27-year-old forward has been a solid two-way player since returning from a torn ACL on Jan. 10. He is averaging a career-high 13.6 points per 36 minutes on 60% true shooting, and he has cemented himself as a backup forward for one of the regular season’s best stories. — Kram
Next games: @ SAC (Mar. 19), @ UTAH (Mar. 21), vs. OKC (Mar. 23)
With Joel Embiid playing just 33 games this season due to a mix of injuries and load management, Adem Bona has developed into a serviceable rotation center for Philadelphia in his second NBA season, shooting 58.2% from the field with 1.2 blocks per game in what primarily has been a depth role behind either Embiid or Andre Drummond. — Bontemps
Next games: @ BOS (Mar. 18), @ DET (Mar. 20), @ ATL (Mar. 21), @ DAL (Mar. 23)
A strict minutes limit has reduced Kristaps Porzingis to a reserve role in four of his five games with the Warriors. But the timing, rhythm and conditioning appear to be returning. Porzingis has scored 17, 20 and then 30 points in his last three games in 20, 22 and then 26 minutes, pushing them across the finish line for a needed win in Washington with a barrage of late free throws. Warriors coach Steve Kerr said Porzingis is finding the “answers” he’d been seeking for the health issues that have impacted his career. If he can stick on the court the next month, Porzingis will become an intriguing unrestricted free agent in the summer market. — Slater
It’s been a nice second season for Donovan Clingan, the 2024 No. 7 overall pick, despite little fanfare. He’s third in the NBA at 11.6 rebounds per game and one of only eight players in the league averaging a double-double after a relatively quiet rookie year. It’s yet to be seen whether Clingan’s counting stats (including 1.6 blocks per game) will contribute to winning. The Blazers are slightly better defensively with him on the court and slightly worse offensively. But there have been some early signs of progress. — Slater
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