Champions League quarterfinal preview, predictions: Barcelona, Arsenal, more
ShareLikeOpen Extended Reactions247 Over the course of a long series of knockout rounds, some rounds serve as table-setters instead of thrillers. The Champions League round of 16 gave us onl.
Over the course of a long series of knockout rounds, some rounds serve as table-setters instead of thrillers. The Champions League round of 16 gave us only one tie that went to extra time, and none were decided by one goal. Bayern advanced with an eight-goal advantage over Atalanta, PSG won by a combined six over Chelsea, and even the ties that were undecided after the first leg produced second-leg blowouts: Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle, Sporting CP 5-0 Bodo/Glimt, and Liverpool 4-0 Galatasaray.
The drama may have been lacking, but wow, were we given a huge quartet of quarterfinals.
We get a revenge attempt for Liverpool against PSG, we get another two matches in maybe the most entertaining series of the past year or so (Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid), and we get royalty versus royalty (Bayern vs. Real Madrid). Plus, we get to find out if Arsenal can grind its way past a Sporting CP team that has proved it can win with either all-out suffer-ball, or 90 minutes of full-on pressure.
And so, with the round of 16 still looming in the rearview, let’s look ahead to April’s quarterfinals.
ARSENAL vs. SPORTING CP
First leg: April 7 | Second leg: April 15
The last time Arsenal and Sporting played, in November 2024, Joao Pereira had just taken over as Miguel Amorim’s Sporting replacement, and things didn’t go particularly well for the home team. Arsenal got goals from five different players and left Lisbon with a 5-1 win. Pereira lasted only about six weeks on the job, but under Rui Borges, they’ve put together a remarkable Champions League campaign. Unfortunately for them, Arsenal have been even more brilliant.
Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 1 Arsenal (30.0%), No. 14 Sporting (3.3%)
How Arsenal advanced: By remembering what they’re best at. After an overly cautious road leg — not the first of those that Arsenal have experienced under Mikel Arteta — the Gunners shifted into domination mode at home against Bayer Leverkusen in the second leg of the round of 16. They won 2-0 to secure a cumulative 3-1 victory.
They didn’t create a ton of great chances Tuesday (only two of their 21 shot attempts were worth over 0.2 xG), but a thunderous strike from Eberechi Eze put them ahead in the 36th minute, Declan Rice added a second in the 60th, and Bayer Leverkusen were never going to generate enough of a threat to come back.
Even with the early conservatism, Arsenal attempted 27 shots worth 3.4 xG over the 180 minutes, while Leverkusen attempted 19 worth 1.5. The actual result matched up pretty closely.
How Sporting advanced: By turning up the volume. After a meek 3-0 defeat at Bodo/Glimt in the round of 16, first leg, Sporting had no choice but to go pedal-to-the-metal in the second leg at home. Rui Borges’ squad was able to maintain a full-throttle approach over most of 90 minutes, attempting 34 shots to Bodo/Glimt’s six in regulation and scoring in the 34th, 61st and 78th minutes to tie things up.
Maxi Araujo scored just two minutes into extra time, and Sporting were finally able to ease off the throttle a bit. They prevented any serious comeback attempts over the next 28 minutes and put the tie away with a Rafael Nel goal in stoppage time. It was as steady a three-goal comeback as you’ll see.
Why Arsenal will win: Because they’re the best team in Europe. At some point, I might need to come up with another stock line to always deliver when talking about the Gunners, but this one’s still accurate. Premier League teams may have struggled a bit in the round of 16, and Arteta’s ever-cautious tendencies created 90 tedious minutes in Leverkusen and forced them to play well at home. But they still handled their business with little drama, which has been the case since the start of the campaign.
Arsenal have now won nine of their 10 Champions League matches with one draw. They’re fourth in goals scored per game (2.6), and they’re first in goals allowed (0.5). They have the third-best scoring margin in the competition on set pieces (+0.4 goals per match), but despite their reputation, they’re tied with Bayern for the best open-play scoring margin (+1.6). We don’t really know what will happen if someone’s able to hit them a couple of times early on and force them to play from behind; the last time they were more than one goal down in a match, after all, was last May against Liverpool. (They did come back to tie that match, for what that’s worth.)
We saw an overly cautious Arsenal forced to penalties two years ago in order to eliminate Porto after losing the first leg, and Sporting can hope for a similar scenario this time around, but you have to squint to find any sort of major weakness in their play this year.
Why Sporting will win: They can keep this close and tense. Sporting’s all-out attack against Bodo/Glimt was incredibly impressive, but they’ve gotten to this stage primarily because of a defense that gives you absolutely nothing. They rank second in the Champions League in xG allowed per shot (0.12), and they’ve kept at least two defenders between shot and goal on 81.8% of opponent’s shots, most of any quarterfinalist.
If they can hunker down, block shots and counterattack, they’re in their happy place, and if they can simply get a moment or two of magic from Trincao or Luis “Not That One” Suarez — the two have combined for nine goals and five assists from 25 chances created in the Champions League — they could have the Emirates crowd awfully nervous well into the second leg.
Prediction: Arsenal 4, Sporting 1. There’s a path to a Sporting upset, but Arsenal’s whole thing is that they create so many paths for themselves.
BAYERN MUNICH vs. REAL MADRID
First leg: April 7 | Second leg: April 15
Robson tips Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid in the Champions League
Stewart Robson makes his prediction for Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals.
The most played matchup in the history of the European Cup/Champions League will add two more matches — the 29th and 30th since 1976 — to the tally. Bayern were Real Madrid’s bogey team for decades, winning nine of their first 13 meetings. But starting with the second leg of the 2011-12 semifinals, Real Madrid have gone unbeaten in the past nine head-to-heads. Bayern will be favored, but does that matter in this competition?
Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 2 Bayern (18.0%), No. 5 Real Madrid (10.2%)
How Bayern advanced: With Bayern-esque domination. Atalanta had taken down Borussia Dortmund in dramatic fashion in the last round and has plenty of excellent performances against European heavyweights on the résumé, but Bayern jumped on them immediately, racing to a 3-0 lead in just 25 minutes in the first leg in Bergamo and cruising to a cumulative 10-2 win despite (a) Harry Kane not playing in the first leg and (b) a goalkeeper injury crisis so severe that they thought they might have to start a 16-year-old in the second leg. (In the end, 22-year-old Jonas Urbig started and played well until a late, meaningless breakdown.)
Michael Olise and Luis Díaz combined for three goals and three assists across the two legs, 10 players made a goal contribution, and when Kane returned in the second leg, he did ridiculous stuff like this:
How Real Madrid advanced: With individual brilliance, as always. (And a well-timed red card.)Federico Valverde had just about the most gorgeous hat trick you’ll ever see as Real Madrid stunned Manchester City 3-0 in the first leg of the round of 16, and after Thibaut Courtois made a couple of lovely early saves back in Manchester, a Bernardo Silva red card and a brace from Vinícius Júnior gave them a 2-1 win in the return leg.
Real Madrid don’t get to play much as underdogs, but it can bring out the best in them at times when they do, especially in the Champions League. Perhaps it’s good news, then, that they’ll get to do it again in the next round.
Why Bayern will win: They have too much firepower. After hinting at vulnerability in late January, Bayern have outscored nine opponents 31-9 since the start of February. The defense certainly isn’t perfect, and they would certainly love it if keeper Manuel Neuer were to return from his latest muscle injury by the April 7 trip to Madrid (even though he made a costly mistake in their last knockout round loss there two years ago). But their form is just dynamite.
Bayern are on pace for 88 points in Bundesliga play — that would be their highest total since 2015-16, Pep Guardiola’s last year in charge — and in Champions League play they’re first in goals per game (2.9) and third in goals allowed per game (1.0). Their buildup play might be the best in Europe, and their 72.1 progressive passes per game also rank first in the competition. In fact, Joshua Kimmich (13.4 progressive passes per 90 minutes) and Aleksandar Pavlovic (12.3) have been just about the best such passers in this competition.
Against a passive and often shaky Real Madrid defense, they should control the ball.
Why Real Madrid will win: Because this is Real Madrid in the Champions League. We can’t really say this team is shifting into a new gear under Alvaro Arbeloa, as it hasn’t even been a month since their back-to-back league losses to Getafe and Osasuna. But even in this scattershot season, their great moments have been otherworldly. They scored six on Monaco and five on Real Betis in January, and they controlled nearly 180 minutes against City, counterattacking brilliantly. And no matter how well they’re playing in a given season, when the brightest of Champions League lights go on, the more they tend to play like Real Madrid, the most successful club in Europe.
Club form and defensive fragility — and an injury to Kylian Mbappé — didn’t matter when Manchester City came to the Bernebeu; they extended their run of success against Guardiola’s club all the same. They’ve now lost only once in their last seven City head-to-heads.
They’re also unbeaten in their past nine matches against Bayern, by the way, and they gutted out a late comeback against Bayern in the semifinals just two years ago. Bayern have been the second-best team in Europe this season, behind only Arsenal, but again, does that matter?
Prediction: Bayern 5, Real Madrid 4. It takes a leap of faith picking against the Blancos in this competition, and Mbappe’s likely return could give Real Madrid a boost (though it sounds like Courtois will miss the matchup with a thigh injury), but Bayern’s firepower is ridiculous.
BARCELONA vs. ATLETICO MADRID
First leg: April 8 | Second leg: April 14
Can Atletico Madrid pull off another two-legged win over Barcelona?
The ESPN FC crew wonder if Atletico Madrid can repeat their Copa del Rey win over Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals.
Is there a more fun matchup in Europe right now than Hansi Flick’s Barca against Diego Simeone’s Atleti? In just the past 13 months, they’ve played matches with scores of 4-4, 4-2 (Barca), 3-1 (Barca), 4-0 (Atleti) and 3-0 (Barca); the combination of Barca’s aggressive attack and high defensive line and Atleti’s counter-attacking potential (and the occasional brilliance of Julián Álvarez) makes this an aesthetically perfect matchup.
Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 3 Barcelona (14.7%), No. 8 Atletico (4.7%)
How Barca advanced: By setting a trap. They baited Newcastle into a track meet, and ran them into the ground.
– First 120 minutes: Newcastle 3 (2.7 xG), Barcelona 3 (2.1 xG) – Last 60 minutes: Barcelona 5 (3.7 xG), Newcastle 0 (0.1 xG)
Raphinha was at his best, scoring two goals with two assists, and Robert Lewandowski scored twice in five minutes as Newcastle’s errors ramped up exponentially. The tempo in the first half of the second leg was absolutely nuclear, and Newcastle’s legs went. Barca’s almost never do.
How Atletico advanced: With early offense. They got out of Tottenham’s way as Spurs collapsed early in the first leg, then rode out the rest of the 180 minutes. Antonín Kinsky‘s epic collapse aided Atleti as they stormed to a 3-0 lead just 15 minutes in, then made it 4-0 shortly after Kinsky’s substitution. They were outscored 5-3 over the final 158 minutes — Atleti are not nearly as sure in shutting matches down and maintaining leads as they used to be — but it didn’t matter. Spurs cut the deficit to two goals a couple of times on Wednesday, but Atleti responded, and the tie was basically over after Julian Alvarez muscled Xavi Simons to the ground, then scored on the other end a few seconds later.
Why Barca will win: Because they’re just so damn good at what they do (and they’re getting healthier). Barca have had their shaky moments in this competition, drawing 3-3 with Club Brugge and losing 3-0 to Chelsea back-to-back and failing to control Newcastle for much of the first leg. But that was a while ago. They’ve outscored their last seven opponents 24-6 in all competitions, and players like Raphinha and Pedri are finding their rhythm after injury issues. Gavi just got back on the pitch after a long absence, too, and fullbacks Jules Koundé and Alejandro Balde should be back from injury soon. And no matter who’s been on the pitch, Barcelona have established the defensive intensity — a high defensive line (with lots of offsides drawn) with few pressure-free passes allowed — that Flick Ball requires.
Barca are willing to allow a goal if it means scoring two, but the defense has been a bit more sturdy of late. And when Pedri is pulling the strings in deep midfield and Raphinha is punishing defenses for focusing too much on Lamine Yamal, they are nearly unstoppable.
Against a new, more wide-open Atletico, they have won four of the last five, scoring at least three goals in three. The one defeat was a lopsided one — 4-0 in Madrid, which eventually eliminated them from the Copa del Rey — but it came without Raphinha and Pedri, and it featured both an own goal and red card from Eric García. It took a lot for that blowout to happen, in other words, and they still nearly came back and won the tie anyway.
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Why Atletico will win: Because this is a more adaptable Atleti (and the Metropolitano is magic). In LaLiga play, Atletico still have Atletico tendencies: They’re second in goals and xG allowed, third in shots allowed per possession and fourth in xG allowed per shot. Simeone has worked at making them more versatile in attack — they’re also fourth in goals scored and have their highest possession rate on record, 55.1% — but the defense they long ago became known for still shows up most of the time.
However, they’ve struggled to get the balance right in the more open Champions League. They’re allowing 2.0 goals per match (25th out of 36 teams), but they’ve reached the quarterfinals because they can score. Julian Alvarez has 17 goals and eight assists in all competitions this season, and while 34-year-old Antoine Griezmann and 30-year-old Alexander Sorloth have seen their minutes limited, they’ve also combined for 28 goals and five assists. January addition Ademola Lookman has made seven goal contributions in his nine matches, too.
They’re also absurdly good at home. In their last 26 matches at home in the Wanda Metropolitano over the last year or so, Atletico have won 23, and by often emphatic margins — 4-0 over Barca, 4-0 over Real Sociedad, 5-1 over Eintracht Frankfurt, 5-2 over Real Madrid, 5-2 over Tottenham, etc. If they establish another lead in the first leg of the quarterfinals, their first Champions League semifinal berth since 2017 could be in the cards.
Prediction: Barcelona 5, Atletico 3. As fun as Flick-Simeone matches tend to be, Barca also tend to win them.
PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN vs. LIVERPOOL
First leg: April 8 | Second leg: April 14
Robson credits Hugo Ekitike for sparking Liverpool’s big win
Stewart Robson says Hugo Ekitike was the star performer in Liverpool’s 4-0 win over Galatasaray in the Champions League.
A year ago, Europe’s best team over the previous six months (Liverpool) fell to Europe’s hottest team (PSG) in an unimaginably tense round-of-16 tie. A year later, neither label applies, and these teams have been mired in an unending quest for top form. But one of them will reach the semifinals all the same. Can Liverpool get revenge, or was PSG’s brilliant finishing against Chelsea a sign of things to come?
Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 4 PSG (12.2%), No. 7 Liverpool (7.0%)
How PSG advanced: With otherworldly finishing. They haven’t been able to pull away from Lens in the Ligue 1 race, they fell to neighbor Paris FC in the Coupe de France, they won just one of their last five matches in the Champions League league phase, and they nearly had to go to extra time to surpass Monaco in the round of 24. But PSG almost literally couldn’t miss in the round of 16 against Chelsea.
– Combined shots: Chelsea 27, PSG 17 – Combined xG: Chelsea 2.8, PSG 2.1 – Combined goals: PSG 8, Chelsea 2
The xG gods finally righted the wrongs of two years ago, when PSG were bounced from the Champions League semifinals against Borussia Dortmund after turning a 4.9-1.6 xG advantage into a cumulative 2-0 defeat. Over two legs against Liam Rosenior’s naive but unlucky Blues, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored three goals from shots worth 0.5 xG, Bradley Barcola scored twice from shots worth 0.7, and Ousmane Dembélé (one goal from 0.3 xG), Vitinha (one from 0.2) and Senny Mayulu (one from 0.1) all netted excellent goals as well. Their buildup play wasn’t as strong as usual, and they did a lot of their damage in the second leg because of Chelsea errors, but when the ball keeps going into the net like that, nothing else matters.
How Liverpool advanced: With anger. After Galatasaray pummeled Juventus at home, but gave the lead away despite being up a man and needed extra time to win the tie on the road, we probably should have known what to expect in the round of 16 against Liverpool. Sure enough, they were great at home again against the defending Premier League champs, winning 1-0 in a legitimately fun, even battle (xG: 1.3 for both teams). But then came the trip to Anfield.
After both the frustrating trip to Istanbul and an even more maddening home draw against relegation-threatened Tottenham over the weekend, Liverpool unleashed hell on Galatasaray. Shots: Liverpool 32, Gala 4. xG: Liverpool 4.9, Gala 0.2. They scored only once over the first 50 minutes, with Mohamed Salah scuffing an awful penalty attempt, but the dam burst in the second half, and goals from Hugo Ekitike, Ryan Gravenberch and Salah over a 12-minute span turned the match into a laugher.
They rolled 4-0, and any time they look like that, they can beat anyone in Europe.
Why PSG will win: Because we’ve seen them do it. They’re the defending champs, they have the reigning Ballon d’Or winner (Dembele) up front, they have the best midfielder (Vitinha) and fullbacks (Achraf Hakimi, Nuno Mendes) in the world, and when they tilt the pitch appropriately, their endless string of attackers — Dembele, Kvaratshkelia, Barcola, Désiré Doué, Mayulu, Gonçalo Ramos, Lee Kang-In — can overwhelm anyone.
Between injuries, lots of personnel shuffling from Luis Enrique and perhaps a few hangover symptoms, PSG haven’t been able to maintain their fifth-gear form as they did this time last year. Hell, they fell 3-1 to Monaco right before the Chelsea tie. But we know what they’re capable of, and it won’t surprise anyone if they roll to another Champions League title from here.
Why Liverpool will win: Because the components are all there. Who has the best xG differential in the Champions League this year? Arsenal? Bayern? Nope, Liverpool. Who’s allowed the second-fewest Champions League goals per match despite all those defensive issues we’ve read about this season? Who’s averaging nearly a goal per game from set pieces alone? Who has the best margin of shots attempted versus shots allowed? Who has the best margin of high-value shots (0.2 xG or higher) attempted versus allowed? Who’s put the most shots on goal? Who’s generated the most xG per match from counterattacks? Who’s created the second-most high turnovers of any quarterfinalist while allowing the fewest? Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool and Liverpool.
This team has been punished for its inconsistency this season and without a strong finish, the axe really could fall for manager Arne Slot just one year after winning the Premier League. But 21 years ago, Liverpool won the Champions League while finishing fifth in the Premier League, and they’re more than capable of duplicating that feat in the coming weeks.
Prediction: PSG 3, Liverpool 2. We’ll stick with the champs here, but it would shock me if this one didn’t go all the way down to the wire, especially with the second leg at Anfield.
Meanwhile, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Barcelona call cruised through their ties, making their respective claims to be favorites to lift the famous UCL trophy in Budapest on May 30.
So, what to make of it all?
Luckily, ESPN FC writers Mark Ogden, Gab Marcotti, Alex Kirkland, and Tom Hamilton are here to break down the action as it happened and look ahead to the quarterfinals.
Q1. Again, Man City are out of the Champions League far earlier than anyone would have expected, and their record in Europe’s top competition under Pep Guardiola just isn’t good: one title, one runner-up medal, three straight exits at the hands of Real Madrid, and a string of quarterfinal defeats. Where’s the disconnect considering how many domestic titles they’ve won together, and what (if anything) made this latest defeat different from previous ones?
Kirkland: Pep’s record against Madrid in the Champions League — knocked out by the 15-time European Cup winners in 2022, 2024, 2025 and 2026 — is quite incredible, especially given the fact that for much of that time, Madrid really haven’t been very good. Guardiola likes to point to Madrid’s European pedigree and aura in this competition, contrasted with City’s relative inexperience, but are we really buying that? To me, it just sounds like an excuse. City had the quality, and more than enough experience after 15 years at this level, to eliminate this Madrid team. You could say the same last season, and arguably in 2022 and 2024 as well.
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On this latest defeat: Pep’s correct that for the first 15-20 minutes of both legs, City were the better team by a long way, but they didn’t do anything with it. The final ball wasn’t there in the first leg, for all of Jérémy Doku‘s dribbling, while Madrid keeper Thibaut Courtois kept City at bay in the second. And overall, it’s hard to avoid the feeling that Madrid get into Guardiola’s head every single time, forcing him to overthink his tactics and team selection even more than usual. That was true this season, and it’s been true in previous years.
Ogden: It’s the Champions League, and it’s really hard to win it. Only Real have managed to crack the code of making success in the competition feel routine. City haven’t won as many as they should have, but over the years, some great Juventus, Manchester United and Arsenal sides also promised much more than delivered. Guardiola’s City have had the misfortune of being great at the same time as a heavyweight like Real has been making it look it easy.
But one thing that hasn’t helped City — and Pep has raised this in the past — is the ambivalent approach to the Champions League by the club’s fans. They don’t treat it like the special competition that it is: the Etihad is never a cauldron of atmosphere on big European nights, and only 1,000 fans made the trip to the Bernabéu for the first leg. City fans just don’t get it like United, Liverpool, Chelsea or Arsenal supporters do, and when the team needs the fans to drive them on, they just don’t.
Burley: Man City were taught a lesson by Real Madrid in UCL
Craig Burley reacts to Manchester City’s Champions League exit against Real Madrid.
Hamilton: If you take each defeat in isolation, there are differing reasons behind Guardiola’s heartbreak: in this instance, they were far too profligate in the first leg and just couldn’t get a hand on Federico Valverde. In the second leg, Vinícius Júnior dominated them and they were hamstrung by Bernardo Silva‘s red card.
Back in 2022, it was a freak result, with Rodrygo scoring twice in injury time to put Madrid through That was City choking. In 2024, City dominated both legs, but simply couldn’t finish — leading to penalty shootout heartbreak, complete with a performance for the ages from Andriy Lunin. And then last year, City were simply second best, unable to lay a glove on Kylian Mbappé. But uniting 2022, 2024, 2025 and 2026 are strange selection calls by Guardiola, contributing to the feeling — like Alex says — that Real Madrid have somehow got in his head.
Also, perhaps it’s a control thing. There’s more chaos in the Champions League than in the Premier League. City can control the ebb and flow of a league campaign, remaining there or thereabouts over 38 matches, but against Madrid, they’re exposed to mayhem in the Champions League knockouts, something they just can’t compartmentalise.
Marcotti: I don’t think there’s that much of a narrative thread to Pep’s Champions League underachievements, as Tom points out. Different seasons, different circumstances. Where I disagree with Tom: while Guardiola did make unorthodox selection choices in past seasons, he’s been making them all year this season, and that’s because City simply aren’t that good this year. They weren’t much to write home about last season either, but at least they had the alibi of Rodri‘s injury and the lack of summer signings.
This season is different, because he’s been fiddling with the team all season long. Antoine Semenyo right, Semenyo left, Semenyo central, Semenyo bench. Trying 4-2-3-1, 4-2-2-2 and 4-1-4-1 formations. Rayan Cherki in, Rayan Cherki out. Phil Foden (mostly) out. Nico O’Reilly moves to fullback, then back to attacking midfield, then back to fullback. Tijjani Reijnders in and out. The list goes on and on.
Were there freak circumstances in this year’s defeat to Real Madrid, like Courtois wonder-saves and Valverde’s exploits? Sure. But it’s City who made the margins between these two teams so small that even this bruised, battered and despondent Real Madrid could knock them out. That’s what’s different. City simply haven’t been on a par with previous seasons for the past two years.
Q2. The Premier League teams have looked dreadful in the knockout rounds — Liverpool and Arsenal’s big wins helped a little, though European clubs won 30-17 on aggregate in the Round of 16 — with even the Gunners looking sluggish in recent weeks. Barcelona and Real Madrid are fallible, and only Bayern have shown the kind of ruthlessness required to win this competition. Is anyone really good this season? Are we heading for the worst Champions League in several years as a result?
Marcotti: They’re two different things, teams not being good and the competition not being good. Two indifferent sides can produce excitement and quality. But yes, we can point out flaws (sometimes serious flaws) in every single quarterfinalist. To varying degrees perhaps — Bayern and Arsenal have fewer blemishes — but nobody looks dominant.
There are different factors at play I guess. But I think we tend to have short memories and all it will take to make us forget about the flaws is a couple convincing performances from here on out. If Barça’s defenders momentary lapse like they usually do, if Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard restore quality in possession to Arsenal, if Mohamed Salah turns the corner and Arne Slot finds some defensive order, if Courtois keeps making saves and Mbappe stays fit and keeps banging them in…. We have short memories in football.
Hamilton: A lot of “ifs” there from Gab, but fundamentally, I disagree with the question. Arsenal looked far from sluggish against Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday and scored two wonderful goals. They should have had a couple more. PSG were ruthless against Chelsea, while Real Madrid comfortably outplayed the new-look Man City. Barcelona’s second-half performance against Newcastle United at Camp Nou was on another level. And then there’s Sporting’s remarkable comeback against Bodo/Glimt. There were some uninspiring second legs — Galatasaray were poor, and Atalanta offered little resistance, while Spurs arrived at the party far, far too late. But overall, it’s been great fun. This is subjective, but we’re seeing ridiculous results, great goals, and some of the biggest teams in Europe peaking at the right time. And we’ve also had a goalkeeper replaced after 17 minutes. Maybe it’s the excitement of seeing Eberechi Eze‘s goal live on Tuesday night, but overall, I’ve enjoyed it.
Leboeuf & Burley question Rosenior for tactics note at 8-2 down
Frank Leboeuf and Craig Burley speak about Liam Rosenior giving out a tactics note in the 84th minute against PSG.
Odgen: PSG are starting to look good again and Bayern blew Atalanta away, so those are the two sides I would watch out for. Both are on the same side of the draw, so they can’t meet in the final, but I think either of them could emerge as a truly dominant team this season. It’s not ideal to judge sides after the league phase, or even the round of 16, because we don’t see the very best of them until the heat is on in the quarterfinals and beyond. Of course, City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs haven’t made it that far, but none of them were ever good enough to win the competition this year. Arsenal are the Premier League’s best hope and they could bludgeon their way to glory with their set-pieces, but I don’t think they will beat PSG are Bayern over two legs. The same applies to Real and Barça.
Kirkland: Bludgeoning their way to glory: that’s the title for Arsenal’s end-of-season review sorted, right there. But like Mark says, let’s pass judgement on these teams, and the tournament, at the end. We won’t really be talking about the round of 16 by the end of the season. We’ll be talking about the memorable moments from the quarters, and the semis, and the final. But I think some of these teams are really quite good. I’d put Arsenal, Bayern and PSG in that category. I’d say Barcelona could join them there, with some fine tuning. I think Real Madrid are starting to find themselves, although they don’t qualify as really good yet. And I think Atlético Madrid, on their day, have shown they’re capable of really good performances, even if they’re too inconsistent. But yeah, like Tom, I enjoyed this round of 16 a lot. Loads of goals and drama. Bring on the quarters.
Q3. Let’s look at Liverpool. How did this team look so bad against Spurs, and so good against Galatasaray? Mohamed Salah became the 11th player to reach 50 Champions League goals, and he did it even after missing a penalty in the first half with the worst Panenka you’ll ever see. Does this emphatic win say more about them and what it’ll take to turn things around, or more about Galatasaray, who’ve lost 21 of their previous 26 road games in this competition?
Hamilton: This match said more about Galatasaray than it does Liverpool. It was an absolute horror show from the Turkish side, complete with both Victor Osimhen and Noa Lang going off injured. Liverpool could and should have scored more, and while it will be remembered for Salah’s second-half wondergoal (and abysmal first-half penalty) this was a procession for Liverpool, including a farcical disallowed goal at the end of the match. This was exactly the type of result and match Slot would’ve dreamt of after that draw with Spurs at the weekend. But make no mistake, Liverpool aren’t anywhere near the level we saw last season. Dominik Szoboszlai is playing some incredible football, and Florian Wirtz is bedding in nicely after a slow start, but there’s still work to be done. Galatasaray looked inferior, and a world away from the side we saw take a 1-0 lead last week. Away from that formidable atmosphere at home, they looked very ordinary.
Ogden: I will never make the mistake of writing Liverpool off in the Champions League — the Istanbul final against AC Milan in 2005 and the 2019 semifinal second-leg against Barcelona are just two reasons why. As a club, they always seem to find something else in this competition. But let’s take the romance out of it and get real — this Liverpool team is unreliable at the back and lacks legs and energy in midfield, so they should be overrun by PSG in the quarterfinals. That game will be a huge step up in quality for Slot’s side after Galatasaray, who once again collapsed like a pack of cards on English soil. Liverpool will know that it will get much tougher from here and they could beat PSG. But despite me insisting that I would never write them off, I am going to do exactly that because PSG will be too strong.
Robson tips Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid in the Champions League
Stewart Robson makes his prediction for Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals.
Marcotti: It’s hard to judge Liverpool given what Galatasaray showed (and I can’t get the horrific performance against Spurs out of my mind). With Osimhen unfit and Okan Buruk’s side already prone to collapse on the road, you sort of have to grade them on a curve.
I’m not sure they’ve turned the corner and the stretch run in the Premier League is bound to take a lot out of them. Yes, they have individual who can sparkle, but they’re a far cry from where they were last season. And Joe Gomez is still the first option off the bench at the back. So yeah, I was very happy fo Salah and his goal (shutting up the haters and all that nonsense about him wanting to go to Saudi Arabia) but let’s be real about where he is this season.
Kirkland: This result at Anfield was entirely, completely predictable. In fact, I’m pretty sure I predicted it in last week’s talking points. As Mark and Gab say, a second-leg collapse from Galatasaray always felt highly likely given their away record. I wouldn’t take too much from it in terms of looking ahead to Liverpool’s chances against PSG, which I would say are pretty slim.
Q4. Is it better to have little to play for domestically (Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid) when it comes to putting on a show in the Champions League, or does a challenge in their respective leagues keep you sharp (Arsenal, Real, Barça, Sporting, Paris Saint-Germain)? There’s something to be said for the “fresher” teams looking better.
Marcotti: It’s almost a philosophical question of the “iron sharpens iron” variety. I think you do need some level of sporting tension to keep you going, with Bayern and PSG historically being Exhibit 1 and 1A: their domestic dominance sometimes translated into lackadaisical performances in Europe. (PSG don’t have that issue this year as, for now at least, they do seem to be in a title race).
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Where not having goals domestically can really help you, I think when it allows you to find talent and moments of form from players you only view as squad members. In that sense, a side like Atlético, who are deep and who rotate heavily anyway, can really benefit. Real Madrid are tougher to judge because they’ve had a zillion injuries, while PSG have been up and down when Luis Enrique has rotated. It’s a difficult balance to get right. A year ago, Internazionale were on track for a Treble an ended up empty-handed.
Hamilton: History suggests this is a double-edged sword. Liverpool had a huge lead in the Premier League back in the 2018-19 season, but collapsed at the quarterfinal stage to Atlético Madrid. Barcelona dominated LaLiga in 2017-18 but then came that capitulation at AS Roma. And the same went for Manchester City in 2017-18 who were streets ahead in the Premier League, only to lose to Liverpool in the UCL’s final eight. On the flip side, Bayern used their huge lead in the Bundesliga to keep the team fresh for Europe in 2019-20, while Real Madrid have experience here and PSG enjoyed a huge lead in Ligue 1, and tied up the Champions League too.
So, without meaning to get splinters from sitting on the fence, I think we’ll get a clearer picture here after the next round. Bayern-Real Madrid is the perfect test case to figure out an answer to this, and I expect Bayern to come through. Bodo/Glimt showed the pitfalls of coming into a knockout match cold, with their league season finished. But for Bayern, they can mix and match their team, save emotional energy for Europe, and throw everything at Real.
Can Atletico Madrid pull off another two-legged win over Barcelona?
The ESPN FC crew wonder if Atletico Madrid can repeat their Copa del Rey win over Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals.
Ogden: I don’t want to play a violin on behalf of the Premier League teams here, but it’s a reality that they find it incredibly tough going in the closing weeks of the season because there are just too many games in England. City and Manchester United both achieved Trebles, but there’s a reason why it has only ever happened twice. If Arsenal are still chasing a Quadruple in late-April/early-May, they risk the same fate that befell Liverpool in 2022, who went into the final two weeks of the season chasing all four trophies and ended with just the domestic cups.
It’s not quite so congested in Spain, Germany or France, so clubs from those countries can manage their schedule a little better. It’s not easy in those countries, but it’s easier and if Bayern and PSG have their domestic titles wrapped early, it will only help them in the Champions League.
Kirkland: I think the ideal scenario is probably some sort of halfway house: having a little to play for domestically just to make sure everybody remains focused, without being caught up in a life-and-death, neck-and-neck, gruelling title race. The key thing is being able to rotate, make the most of your squad, and avoid injuries and burnout. That’s the biggest challenge for Arsenal right now, competing — for now — in four competitions. For Madrid and Barça, a four-point gap in LaLiga means neither of them can afford to take their eyes off the ball there, whereas Atlético are virtually assured of a top four finish but 13 points off Barça at the top, and can really prioritise the Champions League now. So it’s a factor that favours Atlético and Bayern, but it’s not necessarily decisive.
Q5. Now that the four quarterfinal match-ups are set — Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool and Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich in the silver path, with Barcelona vs. Atlético and Arsenal vs. Sporting CP in the blue path — who are you picking to advance to the semifinals, and why?
Hamilton: I expect PSG, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Arsenal to progress. PSG should get an advantage from the home leg to take back to Anfield, and it’ll need some Champions League magic to see Slot’s side progress. Atlético’s mad fixture list could count against them when it comes to Barça, while Arsenal will dispatch Sporting, but should be on their guard against complacency after that second-leg performance from the Portuguese side against Bodo/Glimt. And Real Madrid-Bayern Munich will be fascinating, but I just think there’s something about this Bayern side at the moment. They brushed past Atalanta and with the league sewn up, they can conserve their emotional energy for the Champions League.
Kirkland: PSG, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Arsenal. Can I justify saying Madrid will knock out Bayern? No, not really. Objectively, I think Bayern are a better team. But I didn’t expect Madrid to eliminate City either, and here we are. Madrid are starting to come together, Vinícius is happy and on form, Mbappé is back, and Alvaro Arbeloa has found a midfield system — with youngster Thiago Pitarch alongside Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Valverde marauding out wide — which works. They’ll get through, somehow. Barça vs. Atleti is hard to call. The last time they met over two legs was in the Copa del Rey semis, and that ended 4-3 to Atleti on aggregate. But Barça look a better team than they did a month ago, so I’d back them to go through.
Moreno: No team in the world can attack like Barcelona
Ale Moreno reacts to a devastating attacking display from Barcelona in their 7-2 Champions League demolition of Newcastle United.
Marcotti: I think three of these four are a toss-up frankly. Arsenal will be heavily favored against Sporting as you’d expect (but let’s not forget how their first leg against Bayer Leverkusen (against whom they were also heavy favorites went and what it took for them to avoid defeat) but the others are really close.
Liverpool, for all their foibles and inconsistencies this season, match up pretty well with a PSG side who hit or miss (don’t let the gaudy scoreline against Chelsea fool you … it came off an xG of just over 2.0). Bayern may be slight favorites over Real Madrid in their current form, but will some of the injured guys be back in three weeks’ time? And with Courtois back there, everything is in play. As for Barça, as Alex says, let’s not forget what happened the last time they faced Atlético in a two-legged format. So, since you’re forcing me to choose, I’ll go Liverpool, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Atlético. But it’s just a guess … that’s what makes this fun.
Ogden: Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich is the one that’s just too close to call. There’s real history between these two, a long-standing rivalry that Bayern used to dominate until Real balanced it up in recent years, but I’m going to go with Bayern just because they have a better all-round team — right now — than Real. But if Jude Bellingham is back and fully fit, it could edge it towards Real. I can’t see Arsenal slipping up against Sporting, although the Portuguese team did knock Mikel Arteta’s side out of the Europa League in 2023. Painful memories perhaps, but Arsenal are a much stronger side now. Barça vs. Atleti? Barça can’t defend, so Julián Álvarez could be their downfall, but Hansi Flick has so much firepower in his side that you would back them to come out on top eventually. And PSG vs. Liverpool should be a PSG win, but who knows with this Liverpool side? Ultimately, they haven’t had a big win for ages now and they will need to find two huge performances to beat Luis Enrique’s side and I just don’t see it happening. So it’s Bayern, Arsenal, Barcelona and PSG for me.
LeBron James ties Robert Parish for NBA’s games-played record
Dave McMenaminMar 20, 2026, 12:27 AM
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MIAMI — After playing Wednesday in Houston, flying through the night, not checking in to his Miami hotel until around 5 a.m. and receiving treatment on his arthritic left foot throughout the day, LeBron James suited up for the Los Angeles Lakers‘ 134-126 win against the Miami Heat on Thursday night and made history against his former team.
Thursday was the 1,611th game of James’ career, tying Hall of Famer Robert Parish for the all-time games-played mark.
For Parish, seeing the lengths the 41-year-old James goes to in playing in his 23rd season, puts him at peace with someone else holding his record.
“If anyone is deserving of breaking the iron man record, I would say LeBron James is,” Parish told ESPN during a phone call Thursday. “Because he takes such good care of himself. … His approach to fitness and what he puts into his body reflects, or mirrors, how I felt about my fitness and what I ate, how I took care of myself. And so, it’s a testament to not only my longevity, but LeBron’s longevity.”
Parish, who set the record on April 9, 1996, by passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s mark of 1,560 games and added to it before retiring in 1997, figured someone would pass him at some point.
“Oh, no, no,” Parish said when asked whether he thought his record, which stood for nearly 30 years, was unbreakable. “I thought the record would be broken eventually.”
As James was approaching the mark last week, he was asked about the pending milestone.
“It’s not something I set out to do,” James said. “The one thing that I’ve always had in my mind is that you can’t be a leader and you can’t practice what you preach if you’re not available to your teammates. And I’ve always kind of just prided myself on trying to be as available as possible in my career to my teammates, going out on the floor every night and keeping my body intact.”
James was coming off one of his finest games all season, with 30 points on 13-for-14 shooting — including six dunks — in Wednesday’s 124-116 win over the Houston Rockets. Against the Heat, he had 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting, 15 rebounds and 10 assists as the Lakers stretched their winning streak to a season-best eight games.
Parish averaged 3.7 points and 2.1 rebounds as a 43-year-old in his final season with the Chicago Bulls in 1996-97. James entered Thursday averaging 21.4 points, 6.8 assists and 5.6 rebounds this season for the Lakers.
“He’s playing at an All-Star level still,” Parish said, “which is equally impressive.”
Lakers coach JJ Redick credits James’ “competitive stamina” as the reason he continues to be so impactful more than two decades into his pro career.
“His ability to put so much focus and intent into his day — that’s how you last, that’s how you improve, that’s how you stay healthy and are available to play in that amount of games,” Redick said before Thursday’s game.
Redick then paraphrased Heat president Pat Riley’s mantra as the mentality James brings.
“Whatever the quote is, ‘Make sure you make the main thing the main thing,’ and he’s made basketball the main thing for a long time,” Redick said.
With James adding another accomplishment to a résumé that already features the most points scored in league history, the most All-Star appearances, four championships, four Finals MVPs and four regular-season MVPs, Parish — who was teammates with Larry Bird and Michael Jordan — was asked where James belongs among the greats.
“Oh, they got to make room for LeBron,” Parish told ESPN. “LeBron is an all-time great. They got to pull up an extra chair and tell some guys to slide over.”
Bill ConnellyMar 19, 2026, 01:59 PM
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ARSENAL vs. SPORTING CP
BAYERN MUNICH vs. REAL MADRID
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PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN vs. LIVERPOOL
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Dave McMenaminMar 20, 2026, 12:27 AM
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